Walter Jones’ congressional seat opened up after he passed away earlier this year. This triggered 16 candidates to enter the race for the Republican nomination for the special election coming up on April 30. Since this is a Republican-leaning district, the top two vote-getters in this first round will go on to on a 2-person run-off. The winner of that run-off will most likely be the next congressman because the Democrat doesn’t have a chance.
Politics Elections received the following polling memo from Atlantic Media & Research:
MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Rick Shaftan, Atlantic Media & Research
RE: Survey, North Carolina Third Congressional District
DATE: April 27, 2019
MURPHY AND PERRY LEAD #NC03 BUT SHEPARD AND ROUSE ARE CLOSING IN THE FINAL DAYS
A live operator survey of 253 likely Republican Primary voters completed this week shows Representative Greg Murphy and physician Joan Perry in the top two spots heading into the April 30th primary, but late movement in the race is giving Representative Phil Shepard and Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse a shot at the runoff.
The survey, conducted by the Atlantic Media and Research of Nags Head, North Carolina between April 24th and April 27th, has a theoretical margin of error of +/- 6.1 percent in 95 percent of cases at a 50 percent response rate, but that number is significantly less on the ballot test question. 50 percent of those interviewed were on cellphones.
TOTAL MON/TUES WED/THU CHANGE
Undecided 43.9% 48.9% 38.5% -10.4%
Greg Murphy 14.2% 13.7% 14.8% + 1.1%
Joan Perry 8.7% 9.2% 8.2% – 1.0%
Phil Shepard 7.1% 4.6% 9.8% + 5.2%
Michael Speciale 5.9% 8.4% 3.3% – 5.1%
Jeff Moore 5.9% 6.1% 5.7% – 0.4%
Eric Rouse 4.4% 2.3% 6.6% + 4.3%
Phil Law 3.2% 4.6% 1.6% – 3.0%
Celeste Cairns 1.6% 0.8% 2.5% + 1.7%
Paul Beaumont 1.2% 1.5% 0.8% – 0.7%
Francis DeLuca 0.8% 0% 1.6% + 1.6%
Don Cox 0.8% 0% 1.6% + 1.6%
Chimer Clark 0.8% 0% 1.6% + 1.6%
Mike Payment 0.4% 0% 0.8% + 0.8%
Michele Nix 0.4% 0% 0.8% + 0.8%
Gary Ceres 0.4% 0% 0.8% + 0.8%
Kevin Baiko 0% 0% 0% 0%
Respondents were asked an open-ended question about their preference for Congress. No names were mentioned or suggested by callers. The results above are broken out between the 131 surveys on Tuesday and Wednesday, and 122 surveys on Thursday and Friday.
Among men, Murphy leads with 10 percent followed by Perry at 9 percent, 8 percent for Moore, 7 percent for Shepard and Speciale, 4 percent for Rouse and 3 percent for Law. 45 percent were undecided.
43 percent of women are undecided and Murphy leads Perry by a wide 19 to 9 percent margin. Shepard is next with 7 percent followed by Speciale and Rouse at 5 percent, Moore at 4 percent, Law at 3 percent and Cairns at 2 percent.
Voters over 65 made up 54 percent of respondents and 41 percent are undecided. Murphy leads with 15 percent followed by Speciale, Shepard and Moore at 8 percent, Perry at 6 percent, Rouse at 5 percent and Law at 4 percent.
43 percent of voters are on Facebook daily, including 37 percent of men, 49 percent of women, 37 percent of those over 65 and 33 percent of those over 75. Perry and Moore fall down badly with these voters, 46 percent of whom are undecided. Murphy leads this group with 13 percent followed by Speciale at 10 percent, Shepard at 8 percent, Rouse at 6 percent and Cairns and Law at 4 percent.
48 percent of respondents have Cable and Murphy leads Shepard by 12-9 with this group, with 8 percent for Perry and 7 percent for Moore. Speciale, Law and Rouse are tied with 4 percent with these voters. 45 percent of cable viewers are undecided.
14 percent say they have already voted and Murphy leads with 33 percent followed by Speciale and Moore at 15 percent, Perry at 10 percent and Rouse and Beaumont tied at 7 percent.
54 percent attend weekly services and Murphy leads with 17 percent followed by Shepard at 10 percent, Speciale at 8 percent, Perry at 7 percent, Law at 5 percent, Moore at 4 percent, Rouse at 3 percent and
Beaumont at 2 percent. 40 percent are undecided.
72 percent of respondents are registered Republicans and 28 percent are undeclareds.
Among undeclared voters, 61 percent are undecided. Murphy and Perry were tied at 7 percent, Rouse had 6 percent, Shepard had 4 percent. We believe a disproportionately large amount of undecideds will not vote and that the final electorate will be much more Republican than this survey indicates.
With registered Republicans, Murphy leads with 17 percent followed by Perry at 9 percent, Shepard and Speciale at 8 percent, Moore at 7 percent, Law and Rouse at 4 percent. 38 percent are undecided.
93 percent of Speciale voters are registered Republicans, the most of any candidate, followed by 88 percent for Law, 87 percent for Moore, 86 percent for Murphy, 83 percent for Shepard, 77 percent for Perry and 63 percent for Rouse. The Shepard and Rouse surge, with the opposite effect for Speciale and Law, indicates the undeclared share of the electorate could be growing.
With a large undecided, anything can happen, but two candidates have momentum right now: Shepard and Rouse, and two candidates: Speciale and Law, have negative momentum. While Murphy looks like a good bet for the runoff, the second spot seems to be a contest between Perry, Shepard and Rouse – and election day deciders will choose who goes in the runoff. The main question is whether Perry has peaked and gets overtaken by someone else’s last-minute surge.
If undecideds are taken out, Murphy has 25 percent, Perry 15 percent, Shepard 13 percent, Speciale and Moore 11 percent, Rouse 8 percent, Law 6 percent, Cairns 3 percent and Beaumont 2 percent. Barring a surge to Murphy from undecideds in the final days, which seems unlikely, it appears the Pitt County representative will not get the 30 percent needed to avoid a July runoff.
METHODOLOGY AND DEMOGRAPHICS
Atlantic Media & Research contacted registered voters who participated in two of the following three Republican Primaries: March 2016, June 2016, May 2018 or who registered after June 1, 2016 and who voted in the 2018 primary. We completed one survey for every 19.2 calls.
22 percent of completed surveys were from Onslow County voters, 21 percent Carteret, 16 percent Craven, 9 percent Pitt, 7 percent Beaufort, 5 percent Dare, 5 percent Pasquotank, 3.5 percent Lenoir, 2 percent Perquimans and Currituck. Chowan, Greene and Pamlico were at 1.5 percent. We completed two surveys in Jones, one in Tyrrell, one in Camden and zero in Hyde.
67 percent are married, 29 percent are unmarried, 4 percent are in “non-traditional” relationships.
91 percent voted in the May 2018 Republican Primary, 56 percent voted in the June 2016 Congressional Primary and 99 percent voted in the March 2016 Presidential and Statewide Primary. 61 percent voted in the 2014 primary. 65 percent participated in the 2012 Republican Primary (8 percent voted in the Democratic Primary).
The average home value of respondents is $219,175.25.
84 percent are in the Greenville-Washington-New Bern TV market and 16 percent in Norfolk. Moore leads in the Norfolk part of the district.
47 percent were born in North Carolina. There was virtually no difference in preferences between those born in state and those born outside of North Carolina.
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