Georgia, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin are the only governor’s races Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups, and three of the four seats are held by Republicans.
Data as of Oct. 20, 2026, 6:54 PM ET (polls and averages last checked). Cook ratings dated Oct. 13; poll field dates listed with each result.
Four governor toss-up races remain on the 2026 map two weeks before Election Day, according to the Cook Political Report’s Oct. 13 ratings. Georgia, Nevada and Ohio are held by Republicans, and Wisconsin is held by Democrats. Nevada is the only one of the four with an incumbent on the ballot.
The latest published likely-voter polls in each state show margins of 1 to 7 points. Cook rates three more races Lean Republican (Florida, Kansas and Texas) and five Lean Democrat (Alaska, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan and Oregon). This article covers the four toss-ups.
Georgia: open seat, statistical tie
Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, are running to succeed Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, conducted by telephone Oct. 7–15 by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs, found Jackson at 46% and Bottoms at 45% among 1,000 likely voters, with 8% undecided and a 3.1-point margin of error. Jackson drew 94% of Republicans and Bottoms 93% of Democrats.
A Quantus Insights survey, as reported by WJCL, of 755 likely voters, fielded Oct. 15–17, showed Jackson ahead by 1.6 points on the initial ballot and 49% to 47.5% when leaners were included, inside its 3.8-point margin of error. Quantus found Jackson leading men 54% to 43%, while Bottoms led women 50% to 44%.
Nevada: Lombardo defends his seat
Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. A Global Strategy Group memo, from a Democratic-sponsored survey of 700 likely voters conducted Oct. 8–13, put Lombardo at 48% and Ford at 47%, with a 3.7-point margin of error.
The Call the Map polling average, which counts 12 Nevada polls as of Oct. 20, shows Lombardo ahead by 2.0 points. Lombardo has led or tied in all but one public poll since February that included both candidates, an Emerson College survey in September that had Ford ahead 44.2% to 42%.
Ohio: Acton and Ramaswamy split the polls
In the open race to succeed Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, the Marist Poll, fielded Oct. 15–18, found Democrat Amy Acton at 50% and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy at 43% among likely voters, with a 4.5-point margin of error. The same poll found 49% of likely voters expect Ramaswamy to win, compared with 45% who expect Acton to win.
Some other recent surveys are closer. A co/efficient poll of 925 likely voters, fielded Oct. 5–6, had Ramaswamy ahead 45% to 43%, and an ActiVote survey of 400 likely voters, fielded Sept. 27–Oct. 19, had Ramaswamy at 51.4% to Acton’s 48.6% in a two-way question. The Call the Map average of 27 polls shows Acton ahead by 2.9 points.
Wisconsin: the only Democratic-held toss-up
Republican Tom Tiffany faces Democrat David Crowley for the seat held by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. The most recent Marquette Law School Poll, fielded Sept. 16–23, found Crowley at 49% and Tiffany at 46% among 692 likely voters, with 5% undecided and a 4.8-point margin of error. Among all registered voters, the race was 46% to 45%.
Marquette found 38% of independent likely voters undecided. Tiffany drew 95% of Republicans, and Crowley’s net favorability fell from plus 4 in August to minus 13 in September as he became better known. Two-thirds of registered voters, 67%, said they favor requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote.
Analysis
Republicans are defending three of the four toss-up governorships, and the polling leaders in Georgia and Nevada are both Republicans, though inside the margin of error. Ohio is the widest gap in a single poll, but the polls cited here run from Acton up 7 to Ramaswamy up nearly 3. In Wisconsin, 38% of independent likely voters are undecided, and 67% of registered voters favor requiring proof of citizenship to register. Governors elected this year will sign or veto election laws and propose state budgets heading into the 2028 presidential cycle.
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