Republicans are leading on the congressional ballot in Republican-held districts and in states Donald Trump won in 2024, according to a new NBC News poll, even as Democrats hold a 7-point lead nationally.
“Republican voters in GOP-held districts and in states Trump won in 2024 are sticking with their party — which is notable because much of the battle for control of both the House and Senate runs through this red terrain,” NBC News reported.
NBC’s article does not publish percentages for those groups. Because each group is smaller than the full sample of 1,000 voters, its margin of error is larger than the poll’s overall ±3.1 points.
The national numbers
Nationally, registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress 52% to 45%, a 7-point edge that is 2 points larger than last month. Democrats lead by 21 points among independents, and 3% are undecided.
Polling averages also show Democrats ahead nationally, but Republican support is rising too. “Their support is still ticking up in our average, but unlike earlier in the year, so is support for Republicans,” Silver Bulletin wrote, noting that the Democratic lead in its average has slipped slightly to D+8.9 from a cycle high of D+9.2.
Where Republicans have an edge
In the NBC poll, 38% of voters view the Republican Party positively, compared with 29% for the Democratic Party. Republicans hold a 2-point edge on the economy and a 5-point edge on government corruption, while Democrats are ahead by 1 point on inflation.
The map also matters. “One of Republicans’ big advantages in 2026 is a favorable political map: Democrats have to win back districts and states Trump won in 2024 to take back Congress,” NBC reported. “In the Senate, they need to win at least two states Trump carried by double-digit margins.”
Trump’s approval rating stands at 40% approve and 60% disapprove nationally. In states he won in 2024, it is 47% approve and 53% disapprove.
“The big question is whether that’s enough to withstand shifts in some key places,” NBC wrote of the Republican lead in GOP-held districts and Trump-won states.
The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted Oct. 28–30, 2026, by phone and text-to-online by Hart Research Associates (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R). The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points.
