A new Fox News poll of 1,398 likely voters finds the race even after Talarico led 51-49 in September. Eight recent public polls all show margins of 4 points or less.
Data as of Oct. 22, 2026, 7 AM ET
Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are tied at 49% each among Texas likely voters in a new Fox News poll released Wednesday, one of the newest Texas Senate race 2026 polls to show a contest separated by a few points or less. In Fox’s September survey, Talarico led 51% to 49%.
The race for the seat held by Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the Republican nomination to Paxton, comes down to the final 12 days. Early voting in person runs through Friday, Oct. 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, according to the Texas Secretary of State.
The Fox News poll
The Fox News Poll, conducted Oct. 15–19 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), surveyed 2,011 Texas registered voters, including a subsample of 1,398 likely voters. The likely voter results carry a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points, according to the poll’s topline release.
Fox attributed the move to a tie to “Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who backed Cornyn in the primary.” Since September, Paxton gained 1 point among both men and women, while Talarico lost 1 point among men and 2 among women, Fox reported.
Among the larger pool of registered voters, Talarico led 52% to 46%, compared with 53% to 46% in September.
On the question of which party should control the U.S. Senate, Texas likely voters chose Republicans 51% to 47%, up from a 50% to 49% Republican edge in September.
Recent Paxton Talarico poll results
Every public poll listed below shows a margin of 4 points or less, inside each poll’s stated margin of error. Talarico leads in six, Paxton leads in one, and one is tied.
| Pollster (sponsor) | Field dates | Sample | Margin of error | Paxton (R) | Talarico (D) | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News Poll (Beacon Research/Shaw & Company) | Oct. 15–19 | 1,398 LV | ±2.5 | 49% | 49% | Tie |
| Emerson College Polling (Nexstar Media) | Oct. 17–19 | 1,000 LV | ±3.1 | 46% | 48% | Talarico +2 |
| CBS News/YouGov | Oct. 8–16 | LV (from 1,492 RV) | ±3.5 (LV) | 49% | 51% | Talarico +2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Oct. 13–14 | 1,200 LV | ±2.83 | 49% | 48% | Paxton +1 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | Oct. 10–14 | 2,000 LV | ±2.19 | 46% | 48% | Talarico +2 |
| Marist Poll | Oct. 8–11 | LV (from 1,196 RV) | ±4.9 (LV) | 45% | 47% | Talarico +2 |
| ReconMR/Siena Research Institute | Oct. 5–8 | 617 LV | ±4.4 | 44% | 48% | Talarico +4 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | Sept. 25–Oct. 5 | 861 LV | ±3.34 | 47% | 50% | Talarico +3 |
LV = likely voters; RV = registered voters. All dates 2026.
The newest survey, from Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media, was conducted Oct. 17–19 among 1,000 likely voters and released Thursday. It found Talarico at 48%, Paxton at 46%, Libertarian Ted Brown at 1% and 5% undecided. When undecided voters were asked which way they lean, Talarico had 49%, Paxton 48% and Brown 3%. “If support for the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3% on the final ballot, melts between now and Election Day, Paxton will likely see his vote share increase, as these third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans,” Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said.
A CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,492 registered voters, conducted Oct. 8–16, had Talarico ahead 51% to 49% among likely voters, with a margin of error of ±3.5 points for likely voters. CBS News called the race “essentially tied” and wrote, “If more Republicans decide to vote, it could certainly change.”
An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, conducted Oct. 13–14, had Paxton ahead 49% to 48%, with a margin of error of ±2.83 points.
The University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs surveyed 2,000 likely voters Oct. 10–14 and found Talarico at 48%, Paxton at 46%, Brown at 3% and 3% unsure, with a margin of error of ±2.19 points.
The Marist Poll surveyed 1,196 registered voters Oct. 8–11. Among likely voters, Talarico had 47% and Paxton 45%, with 2% for another party’s candidate and 4% undecided; the likely voter margin of error is ±4.9 points.
The ReconMR/Siena Research Institute poll of 617 likely voters, conducted Oct. 5–8, had Talarico ahead 48% to 44%, compared with 49% to 43% in September. Its margin of error is ±4.4 points.
The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, conducted Sept. 25 to Oct. 5, found Talarico at 50%, Paxton at 47% and Brown at 1% among 861 likely voters, with a margin of error of ±3.34 points.
What to watch
The Fox News and Emerson polls are the only two of the eight whose interviews ran through Oct. 19, the first day of early voting. A Democrat has not won a statewide race in Texas in more than 30 years, Fox noted. The Oct. 20 Politics Elections roundup of the seven Senate toss-up races listed Texas among six Republican-held seats rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report.
Poll methodology: Figures are each pollster’s reported head-to-head result among likely voters unless noted. Margins of error are as stated by each pollster; Emerson reports a “credibility interval,” which it describes as similar to a margin of error.
