The numbers: The 2028 swing states on this map are the 10 states decided by fewer than 5 percentage points in the 2024 or 2020 presidential election. Together they hold 137 electoral votes. Donald Trump carried 8 of the 10 in 2024, worth 123 electoral votes, and all 10 moved toward Republicans from 2020 to 2024, according to official results compiled by the Federal Election Commission.
Data as of November 9, 2026; certified 2024 and 2020 presidential results from the Federal Election Commission. Margins computed by Politics Elections. Sources listed below.
What Are the 2028 Swing States?
There is no official list of swing states. This map uses a fixed, checkable rule: a state is included if the winning presidential ticket’s margin was under 5 percentage points in either 2024 or 2020. Margins are the Republican ticket’s share of all votes cast minus the Democratic ticket’s share, using the state-certified totals the FEC publishes.
Under that rule, the 2028 swing states are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The list describes recent results. It is not a forecast, and it does not rank which states campaigns will contest in 2028.
Swing-State Margins, 2024 and 2020: Full Table
| State | 2024 margin | 2020 margin | Change | 2028 electoral votes | Official source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | R+0.9 | D+0.6 | 1.5 pts toward R | 10 | FEC |
| Michigan | R+1.4 | D+2.8 | 4.2 pts toward R | 15 | FEC |
| Pennsylvania | R+1.7 | D+1.2 | 2.9 pts toward R | 19 | FEC |
| Georgia | R+2.2 | D+0.2 | 2.4 pts toward R | 16 | FEC |
| New Hampshire | D+2.8 | D+7.3 | 4.6 pts toward R | 4 | FEC |
| Nevada | R+3.1 | D+2.4 | 5.5 pts toward R | 6 | FEC |
| North Carolina | R+3.2 | R+1.4 | 1.9 pts toward R | 16 | FEC |
| Minnesota | D+4.2 | D+7.1 | 2.9 pts toward R | 10 | FEC |
| Arizona | R+5.5 | D+0.3 | 5.8 pts toward R | 11 | FEC |
| Florida | R+13.1 | R+3.4 | 9.7 pts toward R | 30 | FEC |
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R+ means the Republican ticket led and D+ means the Democratic ticket led. Margins are rounded to one decimal place. Electoral votes are the 2020 Census allocation, which the National Archives says applies to both 2024 and 2028.
How the Close States Moved From 2020 to 2024
Every state on the list shifted toward the Republican ticket between the two elections. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin went from Joe Biden in 2020 to Trump in 2024. North Carolina and Florida stayed Republican with wider margins; Florida moved from R+3.4 to R+13.1, the largest shift on the list, and no longer meets the under-5-point test on its 2024 result alone. Minnesota and New Hampshire stayed Democratic with narrower margins.
The national popular vote moved the same way. Trump won the 2024 national popular vote by about 1.5 points, 77,302,580 to 75,017,613, according to the FEC’s official results. In 2020, Biden led nationally by about 4.5 points.
The Closest States in 2024
Wisconsin was the closest state in 2024. Trump carried it by 29,397 votes, or 0.9 points. Michigan (R+1.4), Pennsylvania (R+1.7) and Georgia (R+2.2) were next. New Hampshire, at D+2.8, was the closest state Kamala Harris won.
Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are the most among the states decided by under 5 points in 2024. Florida’s 30 are the most on the full list because of its close 2020 result. For every state’s 2028 electoral vote count, see the 2028 Electoral College map.
Why Past Margins Are Not a 2028 Forecast
Margins from 2020 and 2024 reflect those candidates and those years. The 2028 nominees, turnout and the national environment are not yet known. A state can move several points in one cycle, as Florida and Arizona did between 2020 and 2024.
The under-5-point rule is also a choice. A wider threshold would add states such as Texas, which was R+5.6 in 2020, and Virginia, D+5.8 in 2024. A narrower one would drop states. The table above lets readers apply their own cutoff.
How to Track the Map Through 2028
The baseline in this article will not change; both elections are certified. What will change is the field. The nominating calendar is in our 2028 presidential primary calendar, and several of these states also have Senate seats on the 2028 Senate map, including Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
North Carolina and New Hampshire also elect governors in 2028; see the 2028 governor map. For which Senate seats could open before then, see the 2028 Senate open-seat map.
Swing-State Map Questions
What are the swing states for 2028? Using a margin under 5 points in 2024 or 2020: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
How many electoral votes do those states hold? 137 of 538 under the 2020 Census allocation.
What was the closest state in 2024? Wisconsin, where Trump won by 0.9 points.
Did any close state move toward Democrats from 2020 to 2024? No. All 10 moved toward Republicans.
Where do these numbers come from? The Federal Election Commission’s official 2024 and 2020 presidential results, which compile each state’s certified totals.
Sources
- Federal Election Commission: Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results
- Federal Election Commission: Federal Elections 2020
- Federal Election Commission: Election results and voting information
- National Archives: Distribution of Electoral Votes
